In the crypto money market, most cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, continue to decline and there is a huge market loss of $ 300 billion for the total crypto money market value.
Bitcoin closed red for 6 consecutive weeks for the first time in 8 years. This had not happened in 8 years. Between August 2014 and September 2014, Bitcoin had only weekly red candle closes.
After the same weekly red candle closes in 2014 took place in 2022, most analysts began to look at similar scenarios. Dylan LeClair has put forward a view based on the similarities of Bitcoin price.
"A #bitcoin bottom down to it's realized price (average on-chain cost basis) is entirely possible and has been consistent with previous market bottoms in bear market cycles. Realized price is $24.3k at the moment."
Sharing his analysis using data from Glassnode, LeClair stated that it is possible for Bitcoin to drop to its price on the basis of the average cost on the chain. He noted that previous market bottoms are consistent during bear market cycles. The price realized in the Glassnode chart, which is among the data shared by LeClair, seems to be at the level of $ 24,300.
"Here is a standardized ratio between market price and realized price (market value to realized value - MVRV). 24k would be in the green zone. Again, dips to/below realized price have historically signaled a capitulation style bear market bottom is in ( or close)."
LeClair added his thoughts on further MVRV analysis in December for this view:
"Going back to December, I outlined this possibility and prefaced it with the opinion that it's unlikely to occur unless a significant liquidity crisis emerged in legacy markets. Well, it looks like we're getting one. Stay safe out there."
Decreases below the actual price seen in the chart indicate that a bear market is imminent historically.
He added that MVRV data is used to determine previous bear market valuation levels and to determine where Bitcoin is currently. According to data from Glassnode, this price currently stands at $24,300 in MVRV data, which could mean a drop close to $10,000.
The analyst ended the tweet series with the following words;
"The point of this thread is to highlight previous bear market valuations levels and where bitcoin stands today. Nothing is certain, don't put yourself in a position where you become a forced seller."