Lawyer: Low Chance of ‘An Unexpected Decision’

The ongoing lawsuit between cryptocurrency firm Ripple (XRP) and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is coming to a close after nearly two years of fierce legal battle. According to former U.S. Attorney James K. Filan, Judge Analisa Torres, who presided over the case, will decide the case on or before March 31, 2023.

As the case neared its end, attorney Jeremy Hogan, a partner at the Hogan & Hogan law firm, predicted the likely outcome. In a YouTube video today, lawyer Hogan said that he estimates Ripple’s chance of winning the case against the Securities and Exchange Commission is 50.12%. He added that there is a 29.88% probability that Judge Torres will rule in favor of the SEC. However, he suggested that if the SEC were declared a winner, Ripple could again register a slight win in this scenario.

Attorney Hogan also estimates that there is a 19.11% chance that the case will end in a draw for both the SEC and Ripple, in which case the trial will extend into the summer of 2023. He also estimated that the odds of Judge Torres making an “unexpected decision” in the case were between 5% and 7%. Hogan expressed his thoughts on the subject as follows:

“The official litigation estimate from the legal briefs is that Ripple has a 50.12% chance of winning and the SEC a 29.88% chance of winning with a possible XRP loss, but still in this case, Ripple can be considered victorious. The probability of a draw is 19.11% and the probability of an unexpected decision to come out. It’s between 5 and 7%. In other words, there’s a 110% chance of something happening soon.”