Economist and crypto trader Alex Krüger shared his expectations for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum for the rest of the year. While many altcoins have regressed to January levels, Bitcoin has almost stalled. Krüger says the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its process of raising interest rates to contain inflation and will likely make a change in December. According to Krüger, the markets will wait for this move from the Fed and start rallying as early as August.
The Fed increased rates by 20 x 25bps (basis points) in the fastest and most aggressive rate hike cycle in history. This means that at least 90% (if not all) of Fed increases are behind. That’s the only thing that matters to me and it makes it easy to stay long. That’s been my view all year. My basic view is a December pivot and a bull market gearing up to bring it to the fore in early August. You ask why? The economy is cooling and inflation is falling. The Fed is forced to overrate due to past mistakes… This increases the possibility of pivoting when the data reverses.
We’re almost halfway through the year, and Alex Krüger talks about an accelerating rise for the rest of the year. Today, comments from Fed members were that interest rates could be left unchanged in June. Krüger says he believes markets will close 2023 higher than today, even if inflation proves to be stickier and the Fed doesn’t raise rates in December:
If core inflation stays sticky, it won’t pivot in 2023, but the upside is still a good bet, with whatever the Fed (and the AI revolution) is at least 90% complete by year’s end.