Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said in an article published on Thursday: "The current petro-dollar/euro-dollar monetary system came to an end last week, with the US and EU confiscating the reserves of the Russian Central Bank."
Hayes said that because countries see what happens to Russia's reserves, they will not keep their reserves in currencies controlled by foreign governments. Hayes added that in the future, historians will refer to February 26 as "the day this system ended and a new, currently unknown, system began."
“A new neutral reserve asset, which I believe will be gold, will be used to facilitate global trade in energy and food products,” Hayes said of what he thinks will replace the current US dollar-centered system. He then explained that countries around the world have wisely increased the value of gold. However, the former stock market executive said that Bitcoin is not in that position, at least in the West.
"Human civilization is about 10,000 years old, and gold has always been valuable as a monetary instrument. Bitcoin has been around for less than twenty years. But don't worry: it will prosper like gold."
Speaking of two Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg articles discussing the effects of Russia's central bank freeze, Hayes said, "It's so obvious that the perception of the US dollar as a reliable asset has changed," said even the mainstream financial press understands what's going on.
"Sane countries with surplus capital accounts should now keep their savings in another currency."
The key countries in this regard are those that export more than they import, that is, those that have a balance of payments surplus. Hayes cited the World Bank ranking of countries with the largest current account balances, saying that the largest among them is China. According to Hayes, what China will do is not trade internationally using gold or other commodities. Instead, it will continue to accept price currencies before immediately shifting to a more solid asset.
"Given that gold is seen as a solid currency for humanity, China and other countries like it will start to bid quite a bit in the physical gold market."
Continuing to detail how this will play out in the gold market, Hayes suggested that the price of gold "will rise many times over today's level" and that competition among bidders will push the marginal price above $10,000 over the next decade. While gold is still the asset of choice for central banks, Hayes said Bitcoin will also benefit.
"Bitcoin will move towards $1,000,000 as gold rises above $10,000. A bear market in price currencies will trigger the largest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen."