Analyst: “The Likelihood of Rising in BTC Is Higher than the Chance of Falling”

Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Tone Vays has announced that he maintains his expectation that the rise for Bitcoin (BTC) will continue amid the bearish wave that has shaken the crypto market in general.

Tone Vays argued that the probability of Bitcoin rising more than 30 percent from current levels is much higher than the probability of falling to around $ 22 thousand. The bullish thesis put forward by the analyst is based on the fact that Bitcoin’s block reward halving is less than a year away:

After a 10 percent, 20 percent retracement I am more confident in these support areas… I am more confident because there is less time for the halving. The probability of a random upside swing where we hit $34,000 directly is much higher than the probability of a random downside crash where we hit $22,000. As if we’re sitting here at $27,000, up $7,000 to reach $34,000 outweighs $5,000 down. I think it’s much more likely that the price will go up by $7,000 than down $5,000 from here. I just think that the probability of a downward move is very low.

The experienced crypto analyst stated that even if there is an extreme pullback in BTC, which exceeds his expectation, the rise expectation will remain intact, saying:

Even if we continue to exceed my expectation of decline, I expect a rise from $25,000 here, as I was at $20,000. In fact, there is not much difference between a pullback to $25,000 and a pullback to $20,000, but it would be a little safer for the price to rise up to $25,000. And such a fall probably won’t happen tomorrow, but it could still happen in mid-May.

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